Monday, December 28, 2009

UFC 108 Previews: Undercard

Dan Lauzon (12-2) vs. Cole Miller (15-4): Evenly matched fight between two young up-n-comers. I was a bit disappointed with Cole’s performance in his last fight against Efrain Escudero. Shorter Escudero was able to outstruck Miller on the feet and knocked him down with a stiff right hand in the first round and then finished the job with GnP. Miller has steadily improved at the ATT and while he can strike and wrestle, flexible guard is still definitely his best weapon. The younger Lauzon, like his big brother, is coming off a one year layoff. Lauzon is a solid allround fighter with a preference to ground fighting. Lauzon is probably the better wrestler of these two so I’m going with him. Lauzon by UD.

Vladimir Matyushenko (23-4) vs. Steve Cantwell (7-3): Vladdy put on a good performance in his last fight against Pokrajac. His striking looked crisp and he showed that he can still manhandled most LHW’s in the clinch with his world class greco-roman skills. Cantwell is a tough dude with quality striking skills. Cantwell has now two close decision losses in a row: first he lost Luis Cane and then in his last fight to Brian Stann. Cantwell is dangerous on the ground too. He’s not a very good positional grappler or wrestler, but he has slick submission of his back. Vladdy is by far the superior wrestler here and I don’t believe Cantwell is going to submit him. Vladdy by TKO strikes R2.

Mark Munoz (6-1) vs. Ryan Jensen (14-5): Jensen has fought some very tough dudes in his UFC career: Leites, Maia and Gouveia are a tough bunch for any middleweight. Jensen lost to all of those guys, but managed pull off a submission victory in his last fight against Steve Steinbeiss. Munoz is still a quite one sided fighter, who relies almost completely on his excellent wrestling. Munoz is definitely the favorite here, because of the strong possibility that he grinds out a decision win with takedowns and top control. But I’m going with the underdog Jensen, who can hurt Munoz on the feet and also pull off a submission if Munoz gets sloppy. Jensen by guillotine choke R2.

Mike Pyle (19-6-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-5): Pyle is very good on the ground, but he’s going to get wrecked here. Ellenberger has dynamite in his hands like we saw in the Condit fight. He’s also the superior wrestler in this bout, so he can dictate where the fight takes place. Ellenberger keeps it standing and takes Pyle’s lights out in the first. Ellenberger by KO R1.

Martin Kampmann (15-3) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-1): Volkmann is a very good wrestler and ground fighter, but his striking still needs a lot of work. He’s a solid prospect in the WW division, but this is an awful match up for him. Kampmann is a very good allround fighter, who’s wrestling has improved a ton since he started training at the Xtreme Couture couple years ago. Kampmann keeps this fight on the feet and crushes his overmatched opponent in minutes. Kampmann by TKO strikes R1.

Rafaello Oliveira (9-2) vs. John Gunderson (22-6): Oliveira is a strong LW who has been hyped a lot, but has failed to deliver. In his last fight against Nik Lentz he started out very strong by mixing strikes and takedowns. However he gassed pretty badly as the fight progressed and the decision victory went to Lentz in a close fight. Gunderson is a tough IFL vet who used to train at the Lion’s den, but has now switched to Xtreme Couture. Gunderson likes to fight on the ground and most of his wins have come by submission. I don’t like the way Oliveira has gassed in his previous fights and I don’t think he can put a experienced Gunderson away very quickly, so I’m picking the more durable Gunderson by UD.

2 comments:

  1. Great picks and analysis.

    I think there are indeed some good underdog bets here such as Yvel, Jensen, and Gunderson.

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  2. Thanks, man. Yvel looked pretty damn sharp on Dana's vlog...

    ReplyDelete