UFC 108 Betting picks

Pyle vs Ellenberger: Ellenberger is a heavy favorite in my book. Expekt.com offers 1.71 and Nordicbet.com 1.70 from Ellenberger's win.

Dos Santos vs Yvel: Yvel is a dangerous match up for a striker like Dos Santos. Odds on this fight are a bit off in my opinion. You can get 3.59 from PinnacleSports.com and 3.29 from Expekt.com of Yvel's victory.

Oliveira vs Gunderson: this match is dead even in my book. Expekt.com pays 2.44 of Gunderson's win, which makes it a solid bet.

UFC 108 Previews: Undercard

Dan Lauzon (12-2) vs. Cole Miller (15-4): Evenly matched fight between two young up-n-comers. I was a bit disappointed with Cole’s performance in his last fight against Efrain Escudero. Shorter Escudero was able to outstruck Miller on the feet and knocked him down with a stiff right hand in the first round and then finished the job with GnP. Miller has steadily improved at the ATT and while he can strike and wrestle, flexible guard is still definitely his best weapon. The younger Lauzon, like his big brother, is coming off a one year layoff. Lauzon is a solid allround fighter with a preference to ground fighting. Lauzon is probably the better wrestler of these two so I’m going with him. Lauzon by UD.

Vladimir Matyushenko (23-4) vs. Steve Cantwell (7-3): Vladdy put on a good performance in his last fight against Pokrajac. His striking looked crisp and he showed that he can still manhandled most LHW’s in the clinch with his world class greco-roman skills. Cantwell is a tough dude with quality striking skills. Cantwell has now two close decision losses in a row: first he lost Luis Cane and then in his last fight to Brian Stann. Cantwell is dangerous on the ground too. He’s not a very good positional grappler or wrestler, but he has slick submission of his back. Vladdy is by far the superior wrestler here and I don’t believe Cantwell is going to submit him. Vladdy by TKO strikes R2.

Mark Munoz (6-1) vs. Ryan Jensen (14-5): Jensen has fought some very tough dudes in his UFC career: Leites, Maia and Gouveia are a tough bunch for any middleweight. Jensen lost to all of those guys, but managed pull off a submission victory in his last fight against Steve Steinbeiss. Munoz is still a quite one sided fighter, who relies almost completely on his excellent wrestling. Munoz is definitely the favorite here, because of the strong possibility that he grinds out a decision win with takedowns and top control. But I’m going with the underdog Jensen, who can hurt Munoz on the feet and also pull off a submission if Munoz gets sloppy. Jensen by guillotine choke R2.

Mike Pyle (19-6-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-5): Pyle is very good on the ground, but he’s going to get wrecked here. Ellenberger has dynamite in his hands like we saw in the Condit fight. He’s also the superior wrestler in this bout, so he can dictate where the fight takes place. Ellenberger keeps it standing and takes Pyle’s lights out in the first. Ellenberger by KO R1.

Martin Kampmann (15-3) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-1): Volkmann is a very good wrestler and ground fighter, but his striking still needs a lot of work. He’s a solid prospect in the WW division, but this is an awful match up for him. Kampmann is a very good allround fighter, who’s wrestling has improved a ton since he started training at the Xtreme Couture couple years ago. Kampmann keeps this fight on the feet and crushes his overmatched opponent in minutes. Kampmann by TKO strikes R1.

Rafaello Oliveira (9-2) vs. John Gunderson (22-6): Oliveira is a strong LW who has been hyped a lot, but has failed to deliver. In his last fight against Nik Lentz he started out very strong by mixing strikes and takedowns. However he gassed pretty badly as the fight progressed and the decision victory went to Lentz in a close fight. Gunderson is a tough IFL vet who used to train at the Lion’s den, but has now switched to Xtreme Couture. Gunderson likes to fight on the ground and most of his wins have come by submission. I don’t like the way Oliveira has gassed in his previous fights and I don’t think he can put a experienced Gunderson away very quickly, so I’m picking the more durable Gunderson by UD.

UFC 108 ennakkokatsaus

UFC 108 pääkortin ennakkokatsaus - yhteistyössä Pakkotoisto.com. 
Aika ja paikka: 2.1.2010 MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Epäonnesta lukuisten loukkaantumisten muodossa kärsinyt kortti on urheilulliselta tasoltaan ihan siedettävä, vaikkei mikään uudenvuoden spesiaali enää olekaan.

Rashad Evans (13-1-1) vs. Thiago Silva (14-1): Rampagen poisjäännistä ja LHW-sarjan yllättävästä taantumasta johtuen illan pääottelussa kohtaavat tuore TUF-valmentaja Rashad Evans ja hänen tiimikaverinsa viimeksi murskannut Thiago Silva.

Hieman taustaa 205-painoluokan nykytilasta: UFC:n LHW divari elää tällä hetkellä hieman epämääräistä muutosvaihdetta. Painoluokan vakiintuneet tähdet ovat matkalla eläkkeelle (Chuck, Randy, Coleman, Tito jne), keskittyvät muihin juttuihin (Rampage), menettäneet asemiaan tappioiden takia (Forrest) tai vaihtaneet toiseen sarjaan (Wandy). Herrojen jättämä aukko on todella suuri ja samaan aikaan nousevat tähdet, kuten Jon Jones ja Ryan Bader, eivät ole vielä tarpeeksi tunnettuja toimimaan PPV-tapahtuman vetonauloina. Osittain näistä syistä johtuen on tapahtuman pääotteluna nyt matsi, jonka ei todellakaan pitäisi olla UFC:n uudenvuoden tapahtuman main event.

Evans on hieman varkain noussut LHW-divarin huipulle. Greg Jacksonin suojatti suoritti aikaisemmin urallaan tasaisen varmasti, mutta vailla lupauksia suuremmasta menestyksestä. Harva muistaa enää Evansin splittivoittoa Bispingistä tai tasapeliä selkävaivaisesta Titosta. Muistinmenetys johtunee lähinnä siitä, että Evans tyrmäsi ensin todella näyttävästi sarjan entisen kuninkaan Liddellin ja heti perään lunasti sarjan vyön itselleen nuijimalla Forrestin tajuttomaksi. Kertaakaan Rashad ei onnistunut mestaruuttaan puolustamaan, sillä heti ensimmäinen haastaja otti vyön. Tuo haastaja oli tietenkin Machida, joka dominoi titteliottelussa Evansia suvereeniin tyyliin. Ottelu oli hieman ihmeellinen, sillä Rashad ei tehnyt juuri mitään muuta kuin hyppeli edes takaisin ja heilutteli päätään omaan kummalliseen tyyliinsä. Käsittämätön game plan tai huono game planin suoritus. Uransa painivoittoisella tyylillä otellut Evans on viime aikoina ihastunut omasta mielestäni hieman liikaakin lyöntitaitoihinsa. Kieltämättä Rashadilla on luontaista rentoutta ja sitä kautta painoa lyönneissään, mutta teknisesti ja erityisesti puolustuksen näkökulmasta miehen lyöntipeli ei ole erityisen hienoa. Lisäksi noin 180-senttinen ukkeli on 205-sarjaan lyhyehkö, jolloin vaihtoehdoiksi jää lähinnä vastaan lyöminen tai sitten iholle meneminen. Evansin raameihin ja työkalupakkiin nähden tuntuisi luontevammalta, että hän ottaisi oppia treenikavereistaan (GSP, Marquardt jne) ja sekoittaisi paini- ja lyöntitaitojaan nykyistä enemmän. En nimittäin jaksa uskoa, että Rashad tulee ikinä pärjäämään pystyssä Machidan, Shogunin tai Rampagen kaltaisille herroille.

Thiago Silvaa en ole itse arvostanut LHW-sarjassa kovin korkealle, vaikka brassi on pääosin voitokkaasti UFC:ssa otellutkin. Arvostuksen puute on johtunut lähinnä siitä, että Thiagolle syötettiin pitkään tyylillisesti sopivia, keskitason vastustajia, mutta siltikin hän oli useassa matsissa vaikeuksissa. Näiden gimme-matsien pohjalta oli selvää, että Machida-ottelu tulisi olemaan täyttä teurastusta ja niinhän se sitten olikin. Viimeksi mies yllätti kuitenkin positiivisesti dominoimalla Jardinea, jonka virkana näyttää olevan sarjan portinvartijana toimiminen. American Top Teamin edustaja on monipuolinen ottelija taidoiltaan, ainoastaan pystypaini taitaa olla hieman hataralla pohjalla. Kovakätinen Thiago ei ole erityisen tekninen pystyottelija, mutta luja leuka kompensoi pahimmat virheet. Jalkatyöskentelyssä ja päänliikkeessä on vielä paljon parantamisen varaa. Mattopeli on taattua ATT-kamaa ja erityisesti jalkalukkoja Silva tykkää hakea. Thiagon paras ase on silti ehdottomasti tehokas GnP.

Ottelunkulku: Thiagon Silvan aggressiivinen lähestymistapa vapaaotteluun sanelee pitkälti ottelun etenemisen. Silva harvemmin ottaa taka-askelia eli eteenpäin mennään Rashadia pomppiessa ympäri Octagonia päätään ketkutellen. Pääseekö Thiago myllyttämään Rashadia häkkiä vasten vai löytääkö Rashadin vastaiskut maalinsa ensin? Rashad on kaksikosta käsistään nopeampi, joten veikataan voittoa Jacksonin leiriin. Rashad by TKO strikes R2.

Junior Dos Santos (10-1) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1): Illan ainoa raskaansarjan koitos sisältää lupauksen uuden vuoden ilotulituksesta.

Nogueira veljesten suojatti Junior Dos Santos on tehnyt rakettimaisen nousun HW-sarjan huipulle. Heti UFC-debyytissään Dos Santos lähetti myrskyvaroituksen ilmoille tyrmäämällä sarjan top 20 ottelijoihin kuuluneen Werdumia murskaavalla kohokoukulla. Seuraavaan matsiin vastus hieman helpottui ja tuolloin jyrän alle jäi Hollannin nuori Stefan Struve, joka ei kestänyt Dos Santosin kelkassa minuuttiakaan. Viimeisimmässä matsissaan Dos Santos sementoi asemansa sarjan haastajien joukossa pieksämällä legendaarisen CroCopin keskeytyskuntoon reilussa kymmenessä minuutissa. Nuoren brassin nousu on pohjautunut lähinnä yhteen vahvuuteen: tekniseen ja tehokkaaseen nyrkkeilyyn. Se, miten Dos Santos suoriutuu vapaaottelun muilla osa-alueilla sarjan huippuja vastaan, on vielä mysteeri.

Vapaaottelu-maailman paha poika Gilbert Yvel saa vihdoin mahdollisuuden näyttää taitojaan lajin tämän hetkisessä ykköspromootiossa. Yvel on otellut viime vuosina lähinnä Euroopassa johtuen siitä, että miehelle ei ole myönnetty kilpailulisenssiä amerikan mantereella aiempien törttöilyjen takia. Vuoden alun Affliction-tapahtumaan lisenssi vihdoin myönnettiin ja Yvel pääsi mittaamaan tasoaan Josh Barnettia vastaan. Tyylillisesti erittäin epäsopivassa matsissa Yvel jäi täysin paremman painijan jyrän alle. UFC debyyttiinsä Yvel tulee kuitenkin voitto alla, sillä viimeisimmässä ottelussa hän tyrmäsi ennen lajin kovimpiin iskijöihin kuuluneen Pedro Rizzon. Vapaaottelijana Yvel on korkeintaan keskitasoa, sillä miehen pystypaini ja mattopeli on pitkästä urasta huolimatta edelleen varsin heikkoa. Sen sijaan pystyssä the Hurricane on erittäin vaarallinen ja aggressiivinen ottelija, joka tietää varmasti kaikki temput, niin sallitut kuin kielletytkin.

Ottelunkulku: Mielenkiintoista nähdä minkälaisen pelisuunnitelman Nogueiran veljekset ovat Dos Santosille laatineet. Pystyottelun välttäminen Yvelin kanssa olisi luultavasti se järkevä valinta, mutta eiköhän tässä oteta miehestä mittaa seisaaltaan. Dos Santos on viime otteluissaan terävällä lyöntipelillä pystynyt murskaamaan vastustajansa, mutta uskon, että tällä kertaa kovempi ja tyyliltään vaikeampi kanto kaskessa. Yvel vetää pystyssä hyvällä sykkeellä ja kovalla kokemuksella. Jos Yvel pystyy rankaisemaan nyrkkeilyyn luottavaa Dos Santosia perihollantilaisilla lyönnit-ja-alapotku kombinaatioilla, voi ottelu kääntyä hyvinkin hänelle. Yvel by TKO strikes R2.

Paul Daley (22-8-2) vs. Dustin Hazelett (12-4): klassisessa grappler vs striker matsissa kohtaavat räjähtävä potkunyrkkeilymylly Semtex Daley ja welterweightin tyylikkäintä jiu-jutsua esittävä McLovin Hazelett.

Euroopan tämän hetkisen kärkitiimin Rough Housen suojatti Daley on kerännyt reippaalla ottelutahdilla jo yli 30 ottelun rekordin reilun viiden vuoden ajanjaksolla. Semtex, kuten muutkin Rough Housen äijät (Dan Hardy, Ross Pearson, Jim Wallhead jne), luottaa kykyynsä rusikoida vastustajat seisaaltaan. Mattoon mennään, jos sinne pakotetaan, mutta muuten luotetaan erittäin laadukkaaseen pystyosaamiseen. Rough Housen jannut vetävät pystyssä hyvin monipuolisesti kaikki raajoja hyväksikäyttäen. Lisäksi ukkojen pelisilmä ja jalkatyöskentely ovat esimerkillisellä tasolla. Daleyn viime vuosien matseista Thompson- ja Shields-ottelut osoittivat, että Semtexillä on vielä aukkoja pystypainin ja mattotyöskentelyn osa-alueilla. Toisaalta UFC-debyytti Kampmannia vastaan todisti, että pystyssä Daleylla on kykyjä murskata 170-sarjan kovimpia tekijöitä.

Hazelett palaa tähän otteluun yli vuoden tauolta, joka johtui vakavasta polvivammasta. BJJ-taidoistaan harvemmin kehutun Jorge Gurgelin oppilas Dustin Hazelett on tullut tunnetuksi lähinnä erittäin hieno lukkojensa ansioista. Moni muistaa varmasti Burkmanin kohtaloksi koituneen lonkkaheitto-armbar kombinaation tai McCroryn käden vieneen omaplata-inverted-armbarin. Pitkänhuiskea Hazelett on käyttää notkeita raajojaan hyvin ja siksi erityisesti miehen guard on viheliäinen paikka viettää aikaa. Hazelettin mattopeli on myös todella dynaamista ja modernia eli siis vastustajille arvaamatonta. Hazelettin pystyosaaminen on kehittynyt mukavasti viime vuosina, mutta Daley vastaan lähinnä miehen defensiivisistä taidoista on hyötyä. Kovin aggressiiviseksi Hazelettin ei kannata ryhtyä pystyssä brittiä vastaan. Vakavasta loukkaantumisesta takaisin tuleminen näin kovalla tasolla on aina haastavaa ja niin tässäkin tapauksessa. Hazelettin oli tarkoitus otella 106:ssa Karoa vastaan, mutta tuo ottelu peruttiin ja näin Hazelett sai vielä lisää aikaa treenata itseään parhaimmilleen.

Ottelunkulku: Molemmat ottelijat tietävät varmasti heidän välillään vallitsevista päivänselvistä taitoeroista vapaaottelun eri osa-alueilla ja tämä tulee näkymään myös itse ottelussa. Lyhyempi ja nopeampi Daley tekee pistoiskuja, lähinnä käsillään, liikkuen sisään ja ulos clinchiä välttäen. Pidempi Hazelett haluaa tämän matsin mattoon hinnalla millä hyvänsä, joten odotettavissa on clinchin hakemista ja guardiin vetämistä Hazelettin taholta. Hazelettilla on ehdottomasti mahdollisuus voittaa tämä matsi, mutta itse pidän Daleyta paljon todennäköisempänä voittajana. Hazelettin hyökkäävä pystypaini ei ole erityisen tehokasta, eikä kokenutta Daleyta ole helppo guardista lopettaa. Kovakätinen ja nopea Daley täräyttää ruosteet tauolta palaavan Hazelettin päänahasta viimeistään toisessa erässä. Daley by KO knee R2.

Joe Lauzon (18-4) vs. Sam Stout (20-5-1): kuten Hazelett-Daley ottelussa, myös tässä matsissa polvivammasta toipuva grappler kohtaa kovakätisen strikerin.

Vanhempi Lauzon tulee tähän matsiin pitkältä tauolta. Tauon syynä oli katkennut polven ristiside, jonka korjaaminen vaati leikkauksen ja pitkän kuntoutuksen. Tämän takia on tavallistakin vaikeampaa ennustaa, minkälaiseen suoritukseen J-lau pystyy Stoutia vastaan. UFC-debyytissään Lauzon aiheutti yhden MMA-historian suurimmista yllätyksistä lyömällä Jens Pulverin katolleen heti ottelun alussa. Mattotyöskentely ja erityisesti jalkalukot ovat kuitenkin it-nörtti Lauzon suurin vahvuus.

Hands of Stone Stout on yksi tunnetun pystyvalmentajan Shawn Tompkinsin alkuperäisistä suojateista hänen saliltaan Kanadan Ontariosta. Tompkins on itse Bas Ruttenin oppilas ja se näkyy edelleen hänen omissa oppilaissaan, jotka vetävät teknisellä, mutta aggressiivisella tyylillä. Stoutin paras ominaisuus laadukkaan pystyosaamisen lisäksi on harvinaisen kova iskunkestävyys. Katsokaapa vaikka Stout vs Fisher 1 tai 2 ja ihmetelkää miehen kykyä ottaa iskuja vastaan. Paini- ja mattotyöskentely Stoutilla tähtää jaloillaan pysymiseen ja matosta takaisin ylös nousemiseen.

Ottelunkulku: Alasviennin vaara saa luultavasti Stoutin ottelemaan pystyssä tarkasti turhia riskejä välttäen. Lauzon haluaa viedä Stoutin häkki vasten, josta hän voi lähteä sitten rakentamaan alasvientejä clinchistä. Jos Stout pystyy passailemaan alun ja väsyttämään Lauzonin hyvillä sprawleilla, on kanadan poika vahvoilla tauolta palaavaa nörttiä vastaan. Stout by UD.

Duane Ludwig (19-9) vs. Jim Miller (15-2): Kevyensarjan parhaisiin iskijöihin lukeutuva Bang Ludwig korvaa loukkaantuneen Sherkin ottelussa New Jerseyn työmyyrää, Jim Milleriä, vastaan.

Bas Ruttenin perintö näkyy Tompkinsin oppilaiden lisäksi tällä kortilla myös Duane Ludwigin muodossa. Ludwig on tunnettu erinomaisista thainyrkkeily-taidoistaan ja näyttävistä tyrmäyksistä. Bangin nimiin menee UFC:n nopein tyrmäyskin: Jonathan Goulet tipahti Ludwigin käsittelyssä noin neljässä sekunnissa. Lyöntipuolella pitkäraajaisella Bangilla ei ole yleensä vaikeuksia pystyottelussa LW-sarjan kaverien kanssa, mutta defensiivinen pystypaini ja mattopeli ovat aina olleet hänen heikkouksiaan. Näiden heikkouksien takia miehen tulosrivistö on ollut tasaisen epätasaista läpi pitkän uran.

Millerin veljeksistä pienempi, Jim, on vain neljä vuotta kestäneellä vapaaottelu-urallaan tehnyt hienon nousun kevyen sarjan huipulle. Raudanlujan työmoraalin omaava työläispoika ponnisti painipohjalta paikallispromootioiden kautta IFL:ään ja sieltä IFL:n myynnin kautta UFC:hen. Miller on tyypillinen moderni vapaaottelija, joka kykenee kilpailukykyisesti ottelemaan jokaisella vapaaottelun osa-alueella. Millerin parhaita puolia ovat kuitenkin sisukkuus ja teräksinen fysiikka, joka mahdollistaa vastustajan jatkuvan painostamisen nyrkkeilyn ja painin yhdistelmällä. Matossa Millerin veljeksien kanssa painiessa kannattaa suojella kaulaansa, sillä veljesten kuristukset ovat yllätyksellisiä ja tiukkoja.

Ottelunkulku: Bang Ludwig on aina vaarallinen jätkä laadukkaiden pystytaitojensa takia. Varsinkin ottelun alkupuolella Miller saa olla todella tarkkana ulottuvan ja hyvin vastaan lyövän Ludwigin kanssa. Mutta kyllähän tässä lopulta niin käy, että työmyyrä Miller jyrää lyhyellä varoitusajalla matsiin tulevan Ludwigin aggressiivisella painilla mattoon ja se on sitten lopun alku. Miller by RNC R2

WEC 45 Previews

Awesome fights again on the upcoming WEC card.

Donald Cerrone (10-2) vs. Ed 9mm Ratcliff (7-1): Two flashy strikers meet in a bout that has EXPLOSIVES warning signs all over it.

Cowboy Cerrone’s last fight was simply amazing. Not just because Cerrone threw every single offensive move he possibly could, but also because his opponent Benson Henderson took everything Cerrone threw at him and kept coming on. Both guys showed a ton of heart in this the LW title fight. While the fight displayed most of Cerrone’s strengths (skull cracking striking and a very dangerous guard), it also showed that Cerrone still has some weaknesses (wrestling and head movement on the feet). For the LW division Cerrone has long, flexible limbs, which he uses to his advantage both on the feet and on the ground.

Cerrone’s opponent, 9mm Ratcliff, is also primarily a striker. However unlike his foe, Ratcliff also has competed in wrestling. Ratcliff’s biggest strengths are his overall athletic abilities, aggressiveness and unpredictable striking, which includes capoiera style spinning back kicks and heavy knee strikes.

Prediction: While Ratcliff is definitely capable of hurting Cerrone on the feet, I have a hard time believing he’s going to win this fight. Cerrone usually eats more strikes than he should, but he has the chin to take them. In this fight he is the superior striker and he's also much better on the ground than Ratcliff. So where ever this fight ends up, I think Cerrone should have the advantage. Cerrone by TKO strikes from the mount R1.

Chris Horodecki (13-1) vs. Anthony Njokuani (11-2): Another high quality striker versus striker fight on this WEC card

The Polish Hammer Horodecki is a pupil of the famous striking coach Shawn Tompkins. After a successful kickboxing career Tompkins has made a living coaching guys like Horodecki, Stout and Hominick. Hominick’s students all have good basics and a admirable work ethic. You rarely see these guys in a boring fight. Horodecki made a good run at the IFL, excluding the horrible beatdown Ryan Schultz laid on him on the ground in their fight. Horodecki’s strategy is usually to overwhelm his opponents by constantly moving forward and throwing combos. Horodecki’s technical boxing, head movement and footwork aren’t anything special, but he has a solid chin and a relentless mindset that allows him to push the pace.

The Assassin Njokuani is a very big lightweight with devastating striking skills. Njokuani’s coach also rivals with Horodecki’s as Njokuani is coached by the six time world champ and Lumpinee champ Saekson Janjira, who is probably one of the best striking coaches in the world. Athletic Njokuani is a terrifying monster on the feet: tall, long limbs, good boxing and heavy hands, lethal knees and lowkicks. Njokuani has few holes in his MMA game, mostly on his defensive wrestling and ground game, but I don’t think these weaknesses will play a critical role in this fight.

Prediction: Horrible, horrible things will happen to Horodecki’s face. Horodecki will try impose his will, like he always does, on Njokuani by pushing forward. Njokuani has a good reach advantage over Horodecki, so he will move backwards, circle, counterstrike with straight punches and throw knees to the body if Horodecki gets close. Watch for Njokuani to pick Horodecki a part with sharp counterstriking before a highlight reel finish. Njokuani by KO knee R2.

StrikeForce Evolution Preview

StrikeForce Evolution is a pretty good event on paper. Interesting match-ups between veterans and up-n-comers. Here's few previews of main card fights.

Cung Le (6-0) vs. Scott Smith (16-6): I really don’t care for this fight, especially as a main event. A local celeb meets a predictable journeyman.

Cung Le has been away from the fight game for a long time now. His latest fight was the Frank Shamrock fight almost two years ago, that gathered pretty much attention and was one of those fights that really gave StrikeForce a much needed boost. During this lay off Le has focused on his movie career. As a former wrestler Le has the tools to keep the fight on the feet where he can use his best weapon: strong kicks. Le’s boxing isn’t anything to brag about and no knows if he has a ground game or not.

Smith is a trustworthy journeyman in the MW division. He had a few good performances in the UFC, but didn’t quite make it there, so lately he’s been fighting in StrikeForce. Smith is probably best known for his amazing ability to come back to win the fight after getting seriously hurt. Who could forget his epic KO of Pete Sell? Smith has heavy hands (13 KO’s in 16 wins) with below average head movement and footwork, which explains why he gets a KO or gets hurt himself.

Prediction: Smith definitely has the skills and the ability to beat Cung Le to Bolivia, but he also has a habit of getting hurt against respectable opponents. I don’t think Le will be at his best form, but he can still put Smith away with kicks to the body. If Smith can drag this fight past the midway, I’ll believe rusty Le will gas and Smith will take over. Smith by UD R3.

Josh Thompson (16-2) vs. Gilbert Melendez (16-2): originally scheduled for August, this fight is a rematch between the Punk and El Nino.

Josh Thompson has been plagued with injuries for the last few years and his broken tibia was the reason also why this fight was postponed from August to December. A serious fracture that needed surgery kept Thompson out of the gym for months. I amazed if the injury and the long pause from training doesn’t have any effect to Thompson performance in this fight. Thompson is an all-round fighter, who strongest point is excellent kickboxing coupled with solid wrestling.

If Thompson might come a bit rusty in this fight, things are quite the opposite for the El Nino. Melendez is coming off a two impressive wins. First he KO’ed a very tough Rodrigo Damm and then in his latest fight he avenged a loss to Ishida. Melendez showed excellent takedown defense and improved striking in the Ishida fight. Melendez’s best qualities are his wrestling and everlasting gas tank.

Prediction: Josh Thompson completely dominated Melendez when they fought the first time, but things will be very different this time for two reasons. One: almost certainly Thompson will not be at his best. Two: Melendez striking, the main reason he lost the last time, has improved a lot. I expect this fight to be somewhat even early on, but Melendez will apply non-stop pressure on Thompson, who coming off serious injuries and a long lay-off, can’t take it. Melendez by TKO strikes R3.

Matt Lindland (21-6) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (10-2): a stylistically interesting match-up between Lindland, a gritty veteran, and Jacare, one of the very best grapplers in the world.

Unlike many MMA fans, I for some reason actually like the Law. This straight-shooting veteran has been fighting the best guys in the world for years and many times he has also moved up in weight to get an interesting fight. However for this fight things don’t look too good for Lindland. He is 39 years old and for a fighter that’s a lot if you’re not Randy Couture. We’ve seen what age and hard fought battles has done to guys like Chuck and Wandy. Aging has the most effect on your striking. First thing you’ll lose is your speed. Thus your strikes will connect less while you’ll eat more strikes. And there goes the chin. Lindland has also been busy with politics, which means he has not been busy with fighting. Lindland may be a little rusty in this fight, but his protégés like Sonnen have been fighting recently, so I guess Lindland will come in decent shape. Lindland’s success in the cages and rings has based on the same things as Couture’s: control the clinch, dirty box, greco takedown and GnP.

Jacare is the second most promising BJJ fighter in the MMA (the most promising is of course Maia) in my slightly biased opinion. Besides the lethal ground game Jacare is very athletic and has very strong takedowns for a BJJ player. He has been fighting tough guys in his recent fights. With wins over Miller and Galesic and a good showing against the phenomenal Gerard Mousasi, Jacara has launched himself to the top prospects of MW division. Unfortunate things happened in his latest fight, a rematch with Miller, as Miller’s illegal kick cut Jacare’s forehead and forced the fight to be stopped in the second round.

Prediction: this doesn’t look too good for Lindland. Other than getting a flash KO, I don’t see him beating Jacare. Last time Lindland has looked impressive was against Rampage in the former WFA promotion and that was four long years ago. Lindland’s striking isn’t anything special, which means he’ll clinch with Jacare at some point and that will lead to this fight ending up on the ground. I really don’t believe Lindland, even though he is a very good grappler of his own, can hang on the ground with Jacare for too long. If he tries to GnP Jacare, he will have to open up and that will create openings for Jacare. Jacare has said himself “the ground is an ocean, I’m the shark!” and that’s the truth. Jacare by RNC R2.

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (5-0) vs. Mike Whitehead (24-6): A quality HW clash between two wrestlers.

Mike Whitehead has been busy the last few years fighting 3 or 4 times a year and amazing nine times back in ’06. During this time Whitehead has gathered some notable wins and also some notable loses. Mike’s best wins are from the former IFL promotion, where he beat Soszynski, Kerr and Vernon White. Relevant loses came to Jardine in the UFC 57 back in 2006 and to Babalu in the Affliction Banned event in 2008. Whitehead has a record of 14-1 in his last 15 fights, which tells you that this young man has not been fighting against the best of the best. Whitehead’s best weapon is his all-roundness, which is still a rare quality in the HW division. Xtreme Couture’s pupil’s strongest point is his wrestling, but Whitehead can also bang on the feet and has a mean kimura from the top too.

Like Whitehead, Lawal’s base is wrestling. Mo uses his superb wrestling skills for two things: to take his opponent down and also to create openings for his strikes. Mo has been fighting just for a year, but has managed to secure a position as one of the most promising up-n-comers P4P. Mo made waves in his MMA debut when de destroyed and KO’ed much bigger Travis Wiuff, a respected veteran of the sport. While Mo undeniably has some weakness in his MMA skill set, his has also the qualities that allow him to keep winning. He is basically always the superior athlete compared to his opponent, which means his quicker, stronger, more explosive etc. These are all very useful attributes to have when you’re fighting 250 lbs guys that are pretty stiff and slow. Obviously Mo lives on his nearly unstoppable takedowns and a crushing top control, that he combines with GnP.

Prediction: It will be very interesting to see how these guys match up in the wrestling department. While I think Lawal will be the better wrestler in this bout, I don’t think he can ragdoll larger Whitehead around like he has done with his previous opponents. Beforehand this is a definitely the toughest fight that Mo has had so far, but I still think he will ride out a decision win. Mo’s amazing wrestling will have an effect on Whitehead’s striking as he has to be careful not to over commit on his strikes. Whitehead is a tough cookie, who hasn’t been finished in his last 20 fights, and he serves as a very good test for the promising up-n-comer. Mo by UD in a surprisingly boring takedown contest.

UFC 107 post-fight analysis

Just watched last night's fights and thought I wrote some comments about performances.

BJ vs Diego: BJ's boxing is just too much for the other guys at 155. Excellent counter striking once again. BJ is also a very good example of how a superb takedown defense and ground game benefits your striking. He doesn't have to give a sh*t about the possibility of being taken down, so he can just relax and bang away. Gutsy performance by Diego. His striking is a bit too stiff and predictable at the moment, but it's coming along nicely. Next for BJ: Maynard, Edgar? Next for Diego: rematch with Florian would be sweet.

Mir vs Kongo: Great performance by Mir. Nice fake shoot, Kongo lowers his hands and BANG! a heavy back hand. Guillotine didn't look that tight, but Kongo probably was so out of it that he couldn't defend properly. Next for Mir: since Lesnar is out for a while, Mir needs to fight some top contender before he gets a title shot. Problem is most of the guys have fights coming up already. Next for Kongo: back to square one. Take on some up-n-comer like Struve, Duffee or Barry.

Florian vs Guida: Kenny showed again that he's very dangerous on the feet. Florian kept his distance and picked his shots as Guida tried to close the distance. Guida showed big heart and relentlessness once again, but technically his striking isn't very good. Guida throws constantly punches that are too short and couldn't possibly land on his foe. Next for Florian: rematch with Diego would please me or maybe a fight with Frankie Edgar? Next for Guida: back to the trenches so it's someone like Wiman who is next for the Carpenter.

Belcher vs Gouveia: wow, I knew this fight would be awesome slug fest. Both guys took some heavy shots, but it was Belcher's beautiful body shot to the ribs that made the difference. Good showing by the Talent, but Duke Roufus if you read this, please for the love of God, work on this young man's head movement. Next for Belcher: maybe winner of Bisping vs Wandy? Gouveia: 193 lbs at the weight-ins so Wilson must fight at 185. He should face some young gun next, someone like Dollaway or Grove.

Fitch vs Pierce: I was impressed with Mike Pierce. He probably knew before the fight that Fitch would be bigger and more skilled than him, but that didn't stop him from trying to take Fitch's head off. What I admire about these ex-college wrestling stars like Fitch and Pierce is their mental toughness. Years of pressure back in the college wrestling rooms has molded these guys into mental diamonds. You have to literally kill them to stop them. Fitch delivered a guaranteed Jon Fitch performance where he grinded out a decision win, but he needs change something. If he really wants to make a run for the title against GSP again, he needs come up with some new tricks and killer instinct. Next for Fitch: Saunders? Next for Pierce: another young up-n-comer: Hathaway or Foster would be the obvious choices.

Future UFC MW champ with my dags

I got this photo of Demian Maia with my dogs that I thought I'd share. Demian likes dogs very much and has two of his own back in Brazil.
Demian is scheduled to fight Dan Miller at UFC 109 event, which has Couture vs Coleman as a main event. I think it's a solid match up for both guys and a good fight for Demian to comeback to.
Anyways look at this happy bunch:

UFC 107 betting tips

Bookies are giving away few good odds for the 107.
Buentello vs Struve: Buentello seems to be the underdog, much to my surprise. You can get 2.250 from Pinnacle and 2.20 from Unibet of Paul's win.

Palhares vs Linhares: amazing 3,50 odds for Linhares at Nordicbet! This fight is a coin flip in my books, so the odds are really messed up in my opinion.

Burns vs Grant: 2,00 for Burns at Nordicbet and Unibet. I believe Burns should be a slight favorite.

UFC 107 Preview: Penn vs Sanchez

For the preview of the main event, I'll take a short cut, because of two things. First off I have the worst hangover ever (damn company Christmas parties and their open bars) and simply can't think straight at the moment. Secondly Steven Marrocco has already written an excellent preview of this fight to MMAWeekly.com

Everything that Diego does, BJ does better. I think BJ's boxing will be the distinguishing thing is this fight. BJ has lightning fast hands and there's also power behind his punches. And now that BJ has been training with Marv the maniac there has not been any problems with his cardio.

BJ will methodically destroy Diego's face with jabs and also counter him with heavy strikes as Sanchez tries to move in. BJ by TKO strikes R2.

UFC 107 Preview: Mir vs Kongo

Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-5-1): offensive grappler meets offensive striker in this clash of titans.

I have to admit right away that I think Mir is and always has been one of the most overrated fighters. Accusation like this always calls for arguments. My first argument is that Mir has gotten too much credit for most of his wins. Mir rose to stardom back in the days when most heavyweights had absolutely no idea what do on the ground, so Frank was having a good time subbing guys like Tank Abbott and Tim Sylvia. His biggest wins are over Lesnar, who was still very green at the time and Big Nog, who was in no fighting shape because of a staph infection. And my second argument is that during his career Mir has been repeatedly destroyed by guys that weren’t exactly best of the best heavies (Freeman, Pe De Pano, Vera). Mir has mediocre wrestling, average striking and pretty dangerous submission oriented ground game. He is not a very good positional grappler, but he moves well on the bottom, which creates openings for his attacks.

Frenchman Cheick Kongo has been fighting for the UFC for the last four years now and has established himself as a regular face in the HW division. Kongo is 7-3 at the moment in the UFC and to this fight he comes off a loss to Cain Velasquez. Kongo took his last fight on two weeks notice, which probably wasn’t a very good idea. Kongo managed to drop Cain two times with heavy strikes, but most of the time Kongo was getting completely manhandled by the superior wrestler in Cain. Wrestling has been Kongo’s weak point in the past. While it’s still not anything to brag about, Kongo has now the wrestling to deal with most heavies who try to take this muay thai based fighter to the ground. Kongo’s most dangerous weapons are his vicious knees, constantly improving boxing and crushing GnP.

Prediction: Mir has been packing on muscle since he got dominated by Lesnar. It’s difficult to predict how the extra weight and muscle mass will effect his cardio, but if I had to guess I’d say Mir will gas badly if this fight goes to the third round. I believe Mir is planning to end this fight quick. Mir will probably try to clinch with Kongo and go for trip takedowns. It will be interesting to see how these guys match up on the ground if the fight hits the ground at some point. Kongo should try to control the distance with jab and move muscle-bound Mir around the Octagon as much as possible in order to tire him out.

Kongo by TKO strikes R3.

UFC 107 Preview: Florian vs Guida

Kenny Florian (11-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-10): a high quality lightweight match up where two top contenders try bounce back from the losses in their last fights.

You know the phrase “like a caged animal”? That’s the best phrase to describe Carperter Guida, who excels in the cage by keeping up a ridiculous pace and constantly pressuring his opponents. From a technical point of view Guida isn’t the best striker or wrestler in the highly competitive UFC LW division, but he creates opportunities for himself by attacking with something ten times a second. Sure you may defend the first nine, but Guida might catch you with the tenth. This kind of fighting takes of course amazing amount of energy from both fighters, but you can bet on it that it won’t be Guida who gets tired first. Clay lost his last fight by UD to Diego Sanchez in a very exciting and bloody bout. Sanchez was able to outstrike Guida on the feet and landed a few elbows on the ground, but Clay did his thing too by getting takedowns and landing some solid GnP.

Kenny Florian is also coming off a loss and not just any loss, but a loss from a title fight that he so desperately wanted for a very long time. Florian and his camp surprised me and probably many others with the game plan they had come up with for the title fight. Early on Florian was basically just running around the octagon without any attempt to actually fight. In the later rounds this evasiveness changed to pushing BJ against the cage and trying a half assed takedown every ones in a while. When Florian eventually had to fight the champion, he got smoked pretty quickly. A disappointing performance by Kenny or maybe BJ is just THAT good. Florian is a BJJ black belt and while he’s definitely dangerous on the ground, I still think that Kenny’s best qualities are his footwork, elbows and roundhouse kicks.

Prediction: These guys match up pretty well and it’s easy to predict how to fight will play out: Kenny wants to keep it on the feet and pick his shots while Guida will try to get in his face right away, brawl like a tornado and go for the takedowns. There are few things that are harder to predict, which could also affect the outcome of this fight. First one is that Guida has been training with the Yoda of MMA, Greg Jackson, and his team for the first time. Second thing is how Florian performs after getting crushed by BJ. Remember how unmotivated Joe Stevenson looked in the fights following the unsuccessful title fight with BJ? I’ve got a feeling that Florian will take this fight too lightly and at the same time we get to see the best Clay Guida ever. Guida by UD.

UFC 107 Preview: Fitch vs Pierce

Jon Fitch (19-3) vs. Mike Pierce (10-1): Welterweight division’s elite wrestlers meet in a fight, that is pretty important for both guys, since the winner of this bout is really close to a title shot.

Pierce is an exceptionally good wrestler, who shocked pretty much everyone in his last fight, which also served as his UFC debut. Pierce dominated tough Brock Larson with superior wrestling and steady GnP. Athletic Pierce is not the biggest welterweight, but he has good gas tank and work ethic which suits his wrestling-oriented style of fighting.

Fitch is one of the most victorious fighters in the UFC’s history with his 11-1 Octagon record. Fitch really earned his title shot against GSP by winning eight fights in a row. In the fight for the belt GSP laid an epic beating on Fitch, who showed amazing durability, gameness, cohones and all that when he refused to give up. After losing to GSP, it was good time for Fitch to take some time off and focus on improving his skills. He jumped back to action in January when he faced gritty veteran Akihiro Gono at the UFC 94. It was basically a gimme fight where Fitch grinded out a pretty boring decision win.. In his last fight Fitch avenged his team mates loss to Paulo Thiago by outgrappling the Brazilian for three rounds.

Prediction: It’s pretty safe to say that Fitch has a significant advantage on the feet and on the ground. Which is why is also pretty safe to say that Pierce is horribly overmatched here. Sure he got a decisive win over Brock Larson, but then again Larson just got repeatedly slammed and pounded to minced meat by Brian Foster. In his previous fights Pierce has struggled with guys that are nowhere near Fitch’s level. In my opinion Fitch is the best welterweight in the world not named Georges St Pierre. Fitch by TKO strikes from mount R1

UFC 107 Preview: Buentello vs Struve

Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (18-3): a classic striker versus grappler match up where Netherlands tall and thin Struve, who is a replacement for injured Duffee, clashes with Buentello, who will try a second run at the UFC HW division.

Skyscraper Struve is a young up-n-comer, who is currently 2-1 in the UFC. After getting destroyed in few seconds by Dos Santos in his debut, Struve has managed get two wins in a row. First the young Dutchman RNC’ed Denis Stojnic in a fight that was probably the bloodiest UFC fight ever and then in his latest fight Struve applied a triangle choke on Chase Gormley. Dutch fighters are usually primarily strikers, but submission-savvy Struve is an exception. While his striking definitely needs some work, he has a dangerous guard game and uses his long limbs well on the ground.

Fighting MMA since 1997 Buentello is one of the most experienced heavyweights in the game. At the moment Buentello has a solid gatekeeper status in the MMA HW division and is 8-2 in his last ten fights. The headhunter relies on one thing: striking. He never shoots for a takedown and very rarely goes for a submission. All he wants to do is stand and bang. There is or at least was some problems with Buentello’s fight camp for this fight. When AKA-trained Buentello changed his manager to a new one, his old manager and the boss of AKA banned him from the gym.

Prediction: Struve needs to get this one on the floor and fast or this fight will be a repetition of the Dos Santos fight. Struve doesn’t have very good wrestling, but he’ll probably try to clinch right away and pull guard. Experienced Buentello’s takedown defense isn't anything special either, but he knows what’s coming and is comfortable enough on the ground not to make any hasty moves while trying get back to the feet. I hope that Struve snatches a submission victory, but I got a feeling that Buentello’s experience and striking skills will prove to be too much for the young European. Buentello by KO R1.

UFC 107 Preview: Gouveia vs Belcher

Wilson Gouveia (18-6) vs. Alan Belcher (14-6): a quality middleweight bout between two guys, who both fought for top contender status in their last fights, but lost.

ATT’s Gouveia is a heavy handed BJJ black belt. That doesn’t sound too bad, right? While Gouveia is a very good fighter, unfortunately for him, he has a few chinks in his armor. Gouveia’s biggest weakness has been his insufficient gastank, which has costed him at least couple of fights (Reljic and Jardine) in the UFC. Gouveia also gassed badly in his last fight where he found himself on a collision course with a whirlwind of violence named Nate Marquardt. The other weakness of Gouveia in my opinion is that he relies too much on his naturally heavy hands while his dangerous ATT-tweaked ground game goes to waste.

Much like Gouveia, Belcher is also a fighter with very dangerous weapons in his arsenal and few unfavorable qualities. Belcher, who was 14 years old when he fought his first MMA fight against a grown man, is primarily a striker with an improving ground game. In his UFC fights The Talent has shown that he has flashy striking skills and a very effective guillotine, which he used to choke out Sean Salmon and Denis Kang. Belcher’s biggest weakness is without a doubt his inconsistency. When he has his game on, he can choke out guys like Kang and strike tough dudes like Jorge Santiago to sleep. But on the other hand he might get outstruck and destroyed in few minutes by a guy like Jason Day. Belcher’s training camps have varied and that has definitely played a role in his performances, but still it’s hard to know which Belcher will show up.

Prediction: Gouveia has dynamite in his hands while Belcher can carve your face off with his sharp elbows. When you couple these weapons with the fact that both guys have mediocre head movement and footwork, you know this fight is going to be a bloody, skin slicing, eye socket crushing, jaw breaking war. Belcher is one of my personal favorites, which is why my prediction is: Belcher by KO knee R2.

UFC 107 Preview: Nelson vs Wiman

Shane Nelson (12-4) vs. Matt Wiman (10-5): Maybe not be the most exciting fight on the paper, but this fight could turn out to be very entertaining. Both guys have lost their last fight, Wiman actually his last two, so it very well might be that the guys are fighting for their place in the UFC. Hopefully this extra pressure erupts in a positive way.

BJ Penn’s training partner Nelson has fought his last two fight against Aaron Riley, a respected veteran of the sport. The reason why Nelson fought Riley twice was that their first bout ended in controversy. Nelson scored a knock down on Riley and the judge made the call to stop the fight, even though Riley looked like he was ready to defend himself on the ground. In their second bout bigger and stronger Riley pushed the pace of the fight and controlled Nelson to a definite unanimous decision.

Wiman, the Tulsa’s most handsome man, is at a critical point of his UFC career. After losing his UFC debut in a devasting fashion to Spencer Fisher, Wiman managed to score a solid four fight winning streak in the highly compatitive UFC LW division. The streak came to end when Wiman faced Jim Miller, who clearly outstruck Wiman. In his last fight Wiman lost a close decision to canadian striker Sam Stout in a bout that was a very entertaining back and forth war and was chosen as the fight of the night at the UFC 97. In his last two fights Wiman has shown that he won’t quit even if you’re able to hurt him badly.

Prediction: Like the Riley fight implied, Nelson is a bit too small and physically weak for the 155 weight class. I believe Wiman is the stronger and more versatile fighter in this bout and that he will controll the fight where ever it ends up. Both guys are game and love to scrap, so this could very well be a highly entertaining bout a’la Wiman vs Stout.

Wiman by UD.

UFC 107 Preview: Hendricks vs Funch

Johny Hendricks (6-0) vs. Ricardo Funch (7-0): the battle of the undefeated, where rising star Hendricks puts his undefeated record at risk against UFC newcomer Funch.

Hendricks, who is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in the game, is on a fast track to stardom in the UFC WW division. In his last fight Hendricks managed knock TUF winner Amir Sadollah on the queer street in just 29 seconds of the first round. Stoppage was a bit premature, but nevertheless a solid win for Hendricks. Athletic Hendricks has been really working on his striking and judging by his last few fights, it has paid off. There’s something about Hendricks and his style of fighting that reminds me of Dan Henderson.

Marco Alvan and Gabriel Gonzaga trained Ricardo Funch is an unknown and undefeated brazilian. Funch’s record is clean, but wins from the small local events are not very impressive on UFC level anymore.

Prediction: this is a nightmarish match up for the team Link protégé Funch, who has snatched his wins with a strong ground game. Ground skills maybe obsolete in this fight for Hendricks is the better wrestler and has been very eager to “just scrap” in his previous bouts.

Hendricks by TKO strikes R2.

UFC 107 Preview: Johnson vs Garcia

DaMarques Johnson (12-7) vs. Edgar Garcia (7-1): TUF antihero DaMarques Johnson returns to action as he locks horns with Edgar Garcia.

Johnson, who was a fan anti-favourite during his stint on the TUF, got what many think he deserved when we got completely owned by James Wilks in the final. Wilks outstruck and outgrappled smaller Johnson, who was basically fighting to survive the whole time. Johnson’s survival instincts fell short at the last seconds of the first round when Wilks locked a tight RNC on him.

Garcia made an awesome UFC debut in a very entertaining war against Brad Blackburn, but was royally f*cked by the judges, who gave the decision to Blackburn.  Anyways Garcia showed very good striking, wrestling and all around MMA skills in this fight. Garcia got the attention of me and many others well before the Blackburn fight. Prior to signing with the UFC he fought at the WEC against Hiromitsu Miura, the Japanese judo machine who ragdolled Carlos Condit in their fight. Garcia crushed and KO’ed experienced Miura in just one minute and 18 seconds.

Predictions: in my opinion Edgar Garcia is the toughest guy Johnson has ever faced while Johnson definitely isn’t the toughest opponent Garcia has faced on his short, but successful career. Garcia really doesn’t want to leave this to the judges, so look for him to come out guns blazing. Garcia by TKO strikes R1.

UFC 107 Preview: Burns vs Grant

Kevin Burns (10-3) vs. T.J. Grant (14-3): Tough as coffin nails 170ers meet in what’s probably a loser leaves town fight.

Burns made a good first impression in his UFC debut, when he, a BJJ blue belt then, choked out a highly regarded BJJ black belt Roan Carneiro. After the successful debut things have not gone well for Mr Burns. First he had that infamous bout with Rumble Johnson, which Burns “won” by poking AJ’s brain through his eye. Instant rematch with AJ was of course next in line and this time Burns paid a heavy price for that eye poke as Rumble almost decapitated him in the third round with an awesome high kick. After the two fights with AJ, Burns dropped a decision to a legit welterweight gatekeeper in Chris Lytle. Burns was pretty bloodied up in that fight, but never gave up. It’s also good to remember that Burns battled pretty evenly on the feet for about eight rounds with Johnson and Lytle, who are considered top strikers in the UFC WW division.

Like Burns the canadian grappler TJ Grant made also a promising UFC debut at UFC 97 when he managed eak out a split decision over UFC/PRIDE vet Ryo “the dude who flying heelhooked Spider Silva” Chonan. In the fight against Chonan, Grant displayed awesome wrestling mixed with exceptionally active and smooth guard work. Grant’s second and latest UFC fight was at UFC 100 when he lost to Stun Gun Kim by majority decision. Grant was unable to takedown the skilled judoka and couldn’t control or sweep him from the bottom. It wasn’t a poor performance, but showed that Grant is at the moment somewhat one-dimensional.

Prediction: this is a good match up between tough, relentless up-n-comers. Burns has the advantage on the feet added with a reach advantage, while Grant has a strong wrestling base and a very dynamic ground game. I think Grant will control early on with superior wrestling, but the tide will turn in the midway and Burns will take over. Burns by TKO strikes R3.

UFC 107 Preview: Palhares vs Linhares

Rousimar Palhares (9-2) vs. Lucio Linhares (13-4): Paul Harris versus Lynn Harris! Finally we get to see a second finn in the UFC! The first Finn to fight in the Octagon was of course Tony Halme, who kickstarted the career of one Randy Couture by losing to him back at UFC 13 in 1997. So it’s been a long time since a Finn has stepped into the octagon and some squint-eyed people might point out, that even this time there’s no Finn in the fight since both guys are born and raised in Brazil.

But to us Finns, Lucio “Spartan” Linhares is an adopted son, who has lived, trained, coached and competed in Finland for years now. Among the things already listed, Lucio has also had a very positive impact on finnish MMA scene and it’s fighters. Ok, enough with the patriotic rambling. Reason why we get to see BJJ black belt Linhares at the UFC, is that he has made some waves recently and is 5-0 in his last five. Winning streak begun when Linhares KO’ed a european top ranked Karl Amoussou in the first round followed by a quick armbar victory over Kamil Uygun. Even better things were to come as Linhares completely tooled UFC vet Sean Salmon at the Fight Festival 26 in Helsinki. Linhares come out strong and rattled Salmon with a heavy punch. As Salmon was clearly hurt, Linhares took advantage of the situation by taking Salmon’s back and sinking in a fight ending RNC. Last two victories for Linhares came from the M1 promotion as he first KO’ed the Nogueira trained Valdir Araujo and then avanged a loss to tough russian Mikhail Zayats by choking him in one minute.

The other Harris brother, Rousimar goes with a nickname Toquinho (tree stump), which was given to him, because of the way his body is built. Palhares, who is about as wide as he is tall, was a promising up-n-comer well before he signed to the UFC. The BTT pupil was ripping off and taking home the legs of seasoned veterans like Fabio “Negao” Nascimento and Daniel Acacio. Palhares made some noise also with his UFC debut where he put on an outstanding BJJ clinic on Ivan Salaverry, who is a very good grappler of his own. Unfortunately for Palhares the next two fights didn’t go so well. First Palhares met the granite-chined powerhouse Dan Henderson, who was a big step up in competition and nightmarish match up for Palhares. In a boring, uneventful fight Toquinho was outclassed on the feet and unable to score a takedown on Henderson, which probably didn’t surprise anyone, not even Rousimar and his camp. Palhares fought his latest fight about a year ago, when he laid down a beating on veteran Jeremy Horn. While Palhares earned a decision after dominating Horn for three rounds, he paid a heavy price for it as his hand was broken to pieces. The hand healed in time and Palhares was set to face Alessio Sakara at UFC 101, but during the training camp for this fight, Palhares fractured his shin bone and needed surgery. So it’s been a long lay off for Rousimar from both fighting and training.

Prediction: This is an awful match up for Palhares, who probably won’t be at his best considering the injuries he’s had. Linhares has a significant reach advantage and his boxing is lightyears ahead of Palhares’. Palhares only chance is to get this fight to the ground and that won’t be a easy task against a legit BJJ black belt who knows what’s coming up. So I believe Linhares will sprawl and brawl his way to victory as the Big Bertha (Lucio’s right hand, no nazi) will find it’s target at the end of the first round. 

Linhares by KO R1.

"Let's get it on!"

The famous words of Big John will send my first non-professional blog ever on the way. For years I've been writing in both finnish and english to various MMA/NHB/BJJ/Submission Wrestling related forums. I've doing previews of upcoming MMA events (mainly UFC) in finnish for years now and few people have actually spoke well of those previews. Since the events are international and I already participate on the english-speaking MMA forums, I thought it might be a good idea to do the previews in english for now on.


Besides the international MMA events, I'll try to put up some previews and reports of the Finnish events. The finnish MMA is really on a roll right now. On top of weekly smokers and small local events we have pretty big, high quality events with international fighters held here almost every month.


Allright, first up is the preview of the UFC 107.